‘Red September’ is coming – what can be expected from the Bitcoin market

Bitcoin exchanges sideways while Augustus ends, and around this time crypto traders do what they do every year: prepare for pain.

The phenomenon that is known as “Red September”, or “The September Effect”, has chased the markets for almost a century. The S&P 500 has achieved negative returns in September since 1928, making it the only consistent negative month of the index. The Bitcoin track record is worse – the cryptocurrency has fallen on average 3.77% since 2013 and deposited eight times according to data from Coinglass.

“The pattern is predictable: negative social media-chatter spikes around 25 August, followed by raised Bitcoin deposits to exchange within 48-72 hours,” said Yuri Berg, a consultant at the Swiss-based crypto-liquidity provider Fin Echtrade, said Decrypt.

“Red September has gone from market deviation to monthly psychology experiment. We look at a whole market talk ourselves in a sale based on history instead of the current foundations.”

The mechanics behind Red September Trace back to structural market behavior that merges every fall. Investment funds close their fiscal years in September, re -activating tax losses and portfolio reinforce that markets flood with sales orders. Summer vacation season ends and brings traders back to Desks where they re -assess positions after months of thin liquidity. Bond priorities rise after the working day, drawing capital from shares and risk assets while institutions rotate in fixed income.

The Federal Open Market Committee is holding its September meeting and creates uncertainty that freezing it until the policy direction clarifies. In Crypto, this pressure connection: Bitcoin’s 24/7 Trade means no power breakers when selling altcoins.

The cascade starts in traditional markets and spill in Crypto within days. When the S&P 500 drops, institutional investors dump Bitcoin are the first to meet margin calls or to reduce portfolio risk. Futures -markets reinforce the damage due to liquidation -cascades -A spot movement of 5% can float 20% in derivatives. Social sentiment statistics become negative at the end of August and traders sell preventively to prevent expected losses. Option traders cover their exposure by selling spot Bitcoin as volatility rises, adding mechanical pressure, regardless of the basic principles.

And just like all other markets, some believe that this will be a pattern of pure rational expectation, which is simply another way to say self -fulfilling prophecy.

The figures make a backup of Berg’s observation. The crypto anxiety and greed index has fallen from 74 out of 100 to 52, despite the global stock market that shows a more optimistic vision with 64 points. Borderline neutral but still in the “greed” zone.

But in September arrives with unusual cross -currencies. The Federal Reserve has shared positive explanations, with market prices in a different reduction for the meeting of 18 September. Core inflation continues to get stuck at 3.1%, while two active wars disrupt global supply chains. These disorders create what Daniel Keller, CEO of Influx Technologies, sees as a perfect storm.

“We have two history-determining theaters of fighting, one in Europe and one in the Middle East, which disrupt critical supply chains,” said Keller Decrypt. “Moreover, the US has started a global trade war against almost all its most important allies. The contemporary state of global geopolitics perfectly positions BTC for a steep decline in September 2025.”

In other words, at the moment Bitcoin does not see Bitcoin as a hedge, which was the dominant pre-famous story of BTC as an active. Markets consider it much more as a risk -active.

Technical indicators are starting to paint a scary image for traders. Bitcoin broke under the critical level of support of $ 110,000 that the rally has anchored since May. The 50-day advancing average is $ 114,000 and now acts as a resistance with the 200-day EMA that offers support near the $ 103k price line.

Technical traders may watch $ 105,000 as the line in the sand. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders currently place the chance that Bitcoin will fall back to $ 105,000 at almost 75%.

A break under $ 105k would focus on the level of the Sub-100k below the progressive average of 200 days. Keep above $ 110,000 during the first two weeks of September, and the seasonal curse can finally break.

The relative strength index reads 38, in sold -out territory that implies that at least some Bitcoin investors try to get rid of their coins as quickly as possible. The volume remains 30% below the average of July, typical of late summer trade but possibly problematic as volatility peaks.

But even if things seem as if traders are preparing for history to repeat themselves, some believe that the foundations of Bitcoin are now stronger than ever, and that should be sufficient for the king of Crypto to overcome this difficult month – or at least not crash like in the past.

“The idea of ​​’Red September’ is more myth than mathematics,” said Ben Kurland, CEO of Crypto Research Platform Dyor, said Decrypt. “Historically, September looked weak due to portfolio again in balance, fading retail momentum and macrojitters, but those patterns mattered when Bitcoin was a smaller, thinner market.”

Kurland now points to liquidity as the real director. “Inflation does not slide lower, it appears to be sticky with core values ​​that are still crawling higher. But even with that headwind, the Fed is under pressure to relieve growth fools, and institutional enrollment are deeper than ever.”

Traditional warning signals are already blinking. The FOMC meets from 17-18 September, with markets divided on whether civil servants will keep or lower rates.

Keller advises to closely view anxiety and greed indices. “Traders in the coming weeks must keep an eye on the anxiety and greed -Indices to determine the general market sentiment and whether it is better to save in the case prices jumps or sells when ‘Red September’ looms closer,” he said.

The season pattern can weaken when crypto matures. Bitcoin’s losses in September have been moderated from an average negative 6% in the years 2010 to negative 2.55% in the past five years. Institutional acceptance by ETFs and company treasures has added stability. In the past two years, Bitcoin has registered a positive profit in September in September.

Berg sees the entire phenomenon as self -sophisticated psychology. “After years of September, the crypto community has trained to expect weakness. This creates a cycle in which fear of the dip itself becomes,” he said.

It seems gloomy, don’t worry: after Red September, October – or “Uptober” – that is historically the best month of the year of Bitcoin.