Bitcoin spot exchange-bound funds are at pace to maintain more than 1.5 million BTC at the end of the year as the current inflow rates persist, according to Holdings Data result of By Wallet Pilot. This would allocate more BTC to ETFs than most estimates for lost coins, which are approximately 1.4 million BTC.
US Spot ETFs jointly have around 1,296 million BTC as of 13 August, equal to almost 6.5% of the circulating offer. In the past 30 days, the net additives of approximately 17,393 BTC on all funds, a Run rate that, if maintained, would push the total ETF companies in December beyond 1.5 million.
Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust is responsible for the largest share, with around 744,500 BTC under management. This position represents approximately 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply and has been built since the launch of the fund in January 2024.
At an average pace of approximately 4,300 BTC added per month in recent months, IBIT alone can add around 130,000 BTC to its reserves at the end of the year as streams remain stable, so that the companies are further concentrated within a single emitting.
ETF accumulation coincided with the relocation of Bitcoin to new record heights around $ 124,000, reached a level in the midst of expectations that the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates later this year.
These funds have attracted more than $ 50 billion in managed assets in just over a year. The steady enclosure are new Bitcoin issue from the mining, which is almost 450 BTC per day after the Halving of April 2024, so that the available float is applied to secondary markets.
In a flat intake scenario with the current monthly average, ETFs would add around 70,000 BTC to cumulative companies by the end of the year. For example, if the streams accelerate, doubling to around 34,000 BTC per month, ETF reserves could be more than 1.6 million BTC.
Such scenarios would deepen the impact on tradable range, which may increase the price sensitivity for macro-economic developments and fund-specific investor flows.
The concentration of companies within a handful of funds also has consequences for the market structure. With ETF baskets with large quantities of Bitcoin that are not immediately exchanged for underlying coins by most shareholders, the effective liquidity that is available on exchanges can be limited, even if the Secondary Market ETF shares change owner. This dynamic can be the price discovery, since the ETF question becomes a larger share of the total trade volume.
Although the inflow has been consistent in recent months, they will not be guaranteed to continue at the same pace. The net flows can slow or reverse if the macro circumstances shift or if taking a profit increases at higher prices. Regular developments, such as the adjustments to ETF repayment mechanisms or broader changes to the securities legislation, also remain variables that will probably influence the process.
The next four months will determine whether Spot ETFs will cross the threshold of 1.5 million BTC. At the current rates, the milestone appears within reach, which adds a new layer to the interaction between institutional products and the underlying digital assets delivery.
