As Bitcoin ripens, volatility drops – so expect slower climbs, experts say

Bitcoin Perhaps new highlights touch, but the climb of the leading cryptocurrency can be much slower than earlier cycles.

That’s because the volatility in the largest and oldest digital currency dampens, experts said Decrypt. And as the active ripens and advanced traders make more intelligent bets with Bitcoin, it is unlikely that it will bloom as quickly as before.

“See it as someone who trains – a huge peak higher is as if someone crashes that diet to achieve his weight goal, and then they just lose it three weeks later,” said Greg Magadini, director of Amberdata of derivatives.

He added: “But a slow and steady grind is durable, unlike a huge, bubble -like rally. The Bitcoin grows in market capitalization, it costs more money to move it.”

Bitcoin in earlier cycles sometimes made absurd climbs. In 2017, for example, BTC scored $ 19,345 in December to showAfter the start of the year at $ 786 – an increase of 2,360%.

The price of the flagship cryptocurrency hit A new highlight of $ 118,667 on Friday, an increase of approximately 25% from the beginning of 2025 when it was traded at around $ 93,500. The realized volatility of BTC is now 29.5%, far from the 100%of 2021.

The derivaten market indicates why. In 2021, the option market was considerably smaller and reached a peak in October of that year of more than $ 15 billion. In May, BTC Open Options contracts rose to more than $ 42.5 billion on Deribit.

Now traders now buy Bitcoin through the new listed funds-vorig year approved and use trade functions On them.

It works as follows: Investors with many BTC can sell call options – add competitions to the future price of an active – liquidity to the market. Volatility decreases as advanced traders who use this strategy, sales options that do not expect large price movements. Adjust traders in accordance with their expectations and bets.

“We see this with shares: when markets are bullish, they grind higher at a slower pace with less volatility,” said Magidini.

“Of [BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust] We have a new class of market makers with deep pockets that can easily bet for warehouse bets, “he added and noted that Bitcoin was previously a smaller activa class with smaller market makers.

The Active now attracts a more mature class of investors with institutional capital that hits the Bitcoin space, mainly through the new ETFs, market observers told Decrypt.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs attracted $ 1.17 billion on Thursday, their second largest day since their debut in January 2024, led by BlackRock, Fidelity and Ark Invest. They remained strong on Friday, with around $ 1.03 billion in inflow.

However, Bitcoin’s dramatic fluctuations cannot disappear completely.

“I would certainly not exclude periods of high volatility,” said David Lawant, head of research at Falconx, said DecryptThe addition of those price increases from now on “can be locked in a stricter period.”