Will Bitcoin break out this week? Price charts flash mixed signals

Will Bitcoin rise by $ 109,000 by 12 July? With three and a half days over and less than a dismissal of 1% required, cryptocurrency traders put their bets on the question of whether the world’s largest digital active critical resistance levels can overcome that recent rallies have concluded.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $ 109,090 and is very close to the threshold of $ 109,000 – only $ 90 on top of that thin red line, depending on the exact market prices.

Countless, a prediction market developed by DecryptThe parent company Dastan, the question “Bitcoin -price above $ 109,000 on July 11?” Shows a small shift in the opportunities, in which traders change his mind all week. It is now in the 50-50 zone.

What makes this prediction particularly intriguing is the shaving mastermarge for errors. In contrast to broader monthly goals, this market requires that Bitcoin acts above $ 109,000 at a specific moment – 11: 17.00 UTC on 11 July – so that it is a pure test of Bitcoin’s ability to break through immediate resistance levels.

Bitcoin -Price: What the graphs say

Given the short period of time we use four hours and candlesticks of one hour in the charts for the next analysis. In the four -hour time frame, prices currently follow a triangular pattern with support and resistors that converge far beyond the goal date. The coordinates for the price and the time end up over the triangle, which means that Bitcoin should break this phase and enter into a bullish confirmation to meet the criteria for market solution for ‘yes’.

If it fails and stays within the current pattern, the day is closed below the goal. Symmetrical triangles are usually bullish, it’s just that the breakout -moment in this case must be expected, which is not uncommon.

The technical image shows a struggle between the bullish market structure and bearish momentum indicators. At the four-hour period of four hours, Bitcoin maintains a healthy Uptrend structure with its 50-day exponential advancing average, or EMA, comfortably above the 200-day EMA traditionally a bullish signal that suggests that the overall trend stays up. (An EMA is simply the average price of an active for a certain period.) But this optimistic background is tempered by momentum indicators who tell a different story.

The Squeeze-Momentum indicator, which follows the market momentum, blinks Bullish signals on both the four-hour and an hour of cards after a recovery from a small dip earlier in the day.

On the other hand, the average directional index of ADX reads only 13 out of four hours of graph and 17 on the graph of one hour-to-it-way well under the 25-threshold that usually indicates a strong trending market. In simpler terms, although the price structure of Bitcoin looks healthy, the market lacks the conviction and directional strength that is usually seen during decisive movements.

Perhaps the most intriguing is the behavior of the Squeeze indicator on timetables. On the four-hour graph it shows “On”, which indicates a period of price consolidation-in any case what the symmetrical triangle shows. However, the graph of one hour tells a different story with the pinch under Bullish Impuls. This divergence is often preceded by sharp directional movements, although predicting the direction requires a careful analysis of other factors.

Fast markets usually have more noise and volatility. However, the changes in trends usually first appear in these graphs before they can be confirmed during sessions in the longer term

Bitcoin is bullish, but is it bullish enough?

When Bitcoin loses steam, it is difficult to make predictions in the short term. The chance that Bitcoin will be closed above $ 109,000 against the deadline of 11 July, exclusively on the charts, seems to close the probability above $ 109,000 – essentially a coin shell with a light bearish tilt.

With Bitcoin trade on Zijweg, most indicators reflect this uncertainty. Assuming that the 200-All remains as support up to and including 12 July, the target price will be about halfway between the target resistance of $ 109,000 and overhead channels.

The four -hour pattern is cracking bearish. If the current corrective phase persists and Bitcoin remains within the triangle, the prices can end under the target zone before they pop up to confirm a bullish trend.

Weak ADX values ​​indicate a lack of conviction, often a precursor of failed pimples. This challenge is the confluence of resistance only overhead: the decreasing trendline, the psychological level of $ 109,000 and horizontal resistance at $ 109,717 – all of which form a formidable barrier.

Absence of clear accumulation above $ 109,000, the chance of a bullish close decreases with every passing hour. The recovery from the last hour to this level pushes a bearish mood away, but still not enough to have comfortable confidence to call it a trend.

Beyond the graphs it is wise – especially in this case – to check fundamental catalysts who can influence sentiment. Renewed tariff rhetoric of Trump, a weakening dollar index and a rotation from high-beta assets in safer ports can all make Bitcoin more vulnerable for sharp downward movements.