Bitcoin dives on OG Whale Fud, but cards remain bullish: analysis

War, geopolitical uncertainty, the “Big Beautiful Bill” by President Donald Trump – with so much going, what could the Bitcoin market be shaking today? What about one of the largest Bitcoin holders in history who suddenly moves $ 8 billion from their wallets? Yikes.

The crypto community was shocked today by the movement of 80,000 BTC – in terms of about $ 8.6 billion at today’s prices – of portfolios that had been sleeping for more than 14 years. This “OG” holder, who controls the funds for eight portfolios, received their coins in April and May 2011 – when Bitcoin traded between $ 0.78 and $ 3.37. Talk about diamond hands.

The entity – who, he,, she,, collected to 200,000 BTC at a certain moment in 2011, which represents what would be $ 22 billion today. That places this whale in the top five bitcoin holders of all time, according to Coinbase director Conor Grogan. The Coinbase -Execer initially speculated that the portfolios could be an unmarked crypto exchange, and then said that it was probably a very early Bitcoin mini worker before he landed on it, possibly the result of a hack. Oh boy.

The timing of the move, during an American holiday weekend when ‘everyone is on the beach’, has also raised eyebrows and stirred speculation in Crypto Twitter about potential market manipulation.

Needless to say that Skittish Bitcoin traders did not like this, because the price of Bitcoin from more than $ 109,000 to around $ 107,500 fell after news about the movements of the OG Whale. This will not be welcomed news for the 40% of users on Myriad, a prediction market developed by DecryptThe parent company Dastan, who predicted that Bitcoin’s price would remain above $ 108,000 by the end of the week. But up to the 59% of the bears who said Bitcoin would dive, congratulations.

So where can Bitcoin go from here in the long term? Let’s look at the graphs.

Short -term traders seem to take a profit after the 15% rally from Bitcoin in the last 60 days, creating a dynamic “Sell the News”. The cryptocurrency is confronted with immediate technical resistance at the $ 110,561 Swing high from 27 June, unable to break beyond the resistance of a short bearish channel that has been in the game for seven weeks.

The average directional index, or ADX, which measures how strong or weak a price trend, reads 25 – exactly on the threshold that separates typically turbulent, directionless markets from trending. See ADX as a trend strength meter: below 25 means a weak or no trend, above 25 indicates that a trend is developing and above 40 signals a very strong trend.

The exponential advancing averages, or EMAs, also tell a bullish story despite recent weakness. EMAs usually behave as dynamic support and resistance levels that give more weight to recent prices. The EMA of 50 periods (the faster moving average, which measures the average price of the last 50 weeks) is $ 87,394, while the 200-period EMA (the slower, larger) is reduced to $ 56,114. When the price above both EMAs acts and they rise, this confirms an upward trend. Bitcoin stays well above both and maintains its long -term bullish structure.

The relative strength index, or RSI, currently reads 62. RSI Momentum Momentum by comparing recent profits with recent losses on a scale of 0-100. Measurements above 70 suggest that it may possibly go up too fast (overbough), while under 30 indicates that it can be sold. On 62, Bitcoin shows a moderately upward momentum with space to walk higher before he gets overheated.

The squeeze momentum indicator shows that there is still a solid bullish trend in the game. This indicator identifies when the volatility expands after it has been compressed because a spring is released. When the squeeze is “off”, it means that volatility increases and the green signal suggests that the likely direction is up.

In other words, indicators show that position traders and hodlers are still bullish for today, despite the current Bearish vote for traders in the short term.

Most important bitcoin –:

Resistance: $ 110,000 (recent rejection point), $ 115,000 (psychological level)

Support: $ 105,000 (immediately), $ 100,000 (major psychological), $ 87,394 (EMA of 50 weeks)