Bitcoin (BTC) saw the strongest half-year performance ever at the end of 2025, powered by record-ETF inflow, policy risks for the Federal Reserve and the broadening of sovereign adoption, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered.
In a research memorandum of 2 July, Kendrick predicted that ETF inflow and purchases of company chips will exceed the level of the second quarter of 245,000 BTC in both the third and fourth quarter.
The lender maintained his earlier Bitcoin forecast who hit $ 200,000 per year and his external prospects for Bitcoin updated with a price projection of $ 135,000.
He added that Bitcoin ETF flows have already awarded expectations, whereby the market is starting to realize that the post-radiation patterns of the crypto remain intact despite previous doubts.
Buy policy in the tail wind and sovereign
Kendrick also emphasized that, in addition to the buying, markets are confronted with increasing risks for the independence of the Federal Reserve, because President Donald Trump could possibly replace FED chairman Jerome Powell, which would be a shift to the monetary policy of the loss -sized monetary policy.
According to Kendrick:
“ETF inflow and company treasures of companies are all linked in the US.”
In addition, increasing the prospects of Bitcoin is the approval of the Genius Act in the US, which recently obtained the approval from the Senate. Standard Chartered noted that such legislation would improve the clarity of the regulations, facilitate broader acceptance and further integrate crypto into the traditional financial system.
Kendrick also predicted the expansion of the sovereign acceptance of Bitcoin and said that any proof of purchase at national level would support the long -term and price stability demand, similar to the impact of the treasury accumulation in recent months.
The halving cycles theory is over
The memorandum also went to the market about the Halvering Cycle of Bitcoin, a planned event every four years that lowers mining rewards in two and historically influences the price patterns.
Kendrick explained that in earlier cycles the prices of Bitcoin fell about 18 months after a halving, which would imply that the potential would fall around September or October this year based on the April 2024 Halving.
However, Standard Chartered is of the opinion that the dynamics have changed. Kendrick wrote that thanks to strong ETF inflow and buying company treasures, factors that were absent in earlier cycles, Bitcoin can avoid the typical decline.
He said that the price will probably be volatile at the end of September and the beginning of October, because the markets focus on this historic pattern, but predicted that the upward trend will resume at the end of the year, powered by these new structural demand factors.
Kendrick concluded that in the coming months will demonstrate how Bitcoin went beyond his earlier stop cycle behavior, where his prospects are simply summarized:
“Belts fixed.”
