Moon or Doom: where does Bitcoin go, $ 115k or $ 95k?

Bitcoin again makes waves in the financial world. From Friday, the prize of Bitcoin (BTC) will remain around $ 107,000, strengthening the trust of investors and increasing hope for a new wave to his monthly and all time.

The crypto anxiety and greed index is currently 65, which means that sentiment on the BTC market is currently in the “Greed” mode and traders eagerly buy.

Countless, a prediction market developed by DecryptThe parent company Dastan, which makes the trade of event contracts possible, gives a glimpse of the current investor sentiment. A market entitled “Bitcoin’s next hit: Moon up to $ 115k or dip up to $ 95k?” Launched on June 18 and has since seen the chances of Bitcoin’s next movement back and forth.

Countless traders have been a remarkable bullish Bitcoin Since 22 June, when the mood shifted dramatically from 30% to 61.2% in the expectation that Bitcoin will reach $ 115,000 before he dropped to $ 95,000. The market closes on December 31, or when Bitcoin marks the $ 115k or $ 95k, depending on what comes first.

By adding a new layer to the analysis, the Altcoin Season index currently reads 18 out of 100, firmly in the “Bitcoin Season” territory. When the index falls below 25, it confirms Bitcoin’s dominance over the wider cryptomarkt. This means that crypto investor money currently flows in Bitcoin instead of other coins, jointly referred to as ‘altcoins’.

This bullish tends further credibility when considering that 57.7% of countless predictors expects BTC – Dominance to be 70% instead of declining to 58% – a clear voice of trust in Bitcoin’s continuous market leadership. “Bitcoin Dominance” is another measure from where traders place their crypto bets: bitcoin or other coins such as Ethereum, Solana and thousands of others.

Bitcoin up to $ 115k or $ 95k? The battle for the canals

For those who follow the charts, the answer to Bitcoin’s next step can come on July 19. This date represents a critical technical bending point where two opposite forces collide: the short -term Beerarish Channel that limits prices since 22 May meets the long -term Bullish channel that has been supporting the rally since the beginning of April.

The magical song? $ 106,500 by mid -July – if markets stay normal and no unforeseen event things change dramatically.

If Bitcoin is traded above this level by July 14, this indicates that markets have decided to cancel the Bearish correction, to break resistance from the past (the dotted red line in the graph above) and resume the bullish trend to new heights of all time (the fixed blue line). The path to $ 115,000 would then be clear.

Conversely, if the prices on that date are below $ 106,000, this suggests that the Bearish channel remains intact. In this scenario, $ 95,000 is the most likely target as the market continues its correction phase in the larger bullish structure.

That said, if you had to place a bet today, Bitcoin seems to be a little more likely in theory, but with an important reservation with regard to timing. This is why:

Firstly, it is easier for BTC to spike 8% in 49 days than 11% in 21 days (hold on to the date of July 19, in contrast to the end of the year as Myriad has its market structure). Cryptocurrency markets are usually volatile and it is not unusual to see such movements in hours. However, All things are equalLess volatile changes for a longer period are more likely to act because they are more natural and less abrupt.

Bitcoin traders also maintain current price over crucial support levels despite consolidation. Bitcoin is now in a “Golden Cross” formation, which means that the average price of BTC is larger in the last 50 weeks than the average price in the last 200 weeks. And the growing gap between the two averages confirms the bullish structure in the medium term.

But do not lose sight of the convergence of July 19 at $ 106,500. If BTC remains above this level, which probably seems to get the current price above $ 107,000, the Bullish Scenario will be activated.

Bitcoin -Price: a technical analysis

Shorter time cards usually present more noise than longer time cards. Usually, however, trend changes are first reflected in these graphs, so it is important to check them, even when considering positions in the longer term. In the case of Bitcoin, the graph above presents a nuanced technical image that requires careful interpretation, which shows that prices are currently correcting in a wider, established bullish trend.

The average directional index, or ADX, reads 15, well below the 25 threshold that confirms the trend strength. This low reading indicates that Bitcoin misses a strong directional daily momentum – the current price action represents more a drift than a decisive movement. For Momentum traders, an ADX under 20 usually indicates a diverse market where patience is required before the next trending movement comes to the fore.

The relative strength index, or RSI, at 55 places bitcoin on neutral soil. RSI measures the speed and size of price changes to identify overbough or over -sold circumstances. Measurements above 70 suggest an overheated market that is ripe for correction, while lower than 30 -sold circumstances indicate that often precedes bounces. Bitcoin’s Mid-Range Lecture shows a balanced momentum-not exhausted bulls or dominant bears have taken control.

However, the decrease in the transferred levels of previous weeks is a sign that markets struggle more to push prices than before.

Looking at the exponential advancing averages, EMAs in short, is the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA, which retain the bullish configuration. This alignment, where shorter average averages remain above the longer term, traditionally indicates an upward pressure. The growing gap between these averages confirms that despite the recent consolidation, the trend will decide in the medium term Bullish.

The Squeeze Momentum indicator shows the status “OP”, which suggests that the compression of volatility is currently taking place. This tool identifies a market condition that often precedes explosive movements. Involved with the squeeze, traders must prepare for a considerable price movement once this compression has been issued.

In other words, day traders can have more reason to consider Bitcoin to fail than swing traders.