Bernstein believes that strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, could collect more than 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) in a Bullish market cycle by 2033, Benzinga reported on March 26, with a research memorandum.
The projection issued by Bernstein analysts, sketches two enormously different paths for the company, depending on macro-economic conditions and the long-term prize process of Bitcoin.
Bull vs. Bear Scenario
In the optimistic scenario, the strategy would expand its participations from the current 506.137 BTC to 1,013,000 BTC – about 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating range – assuming that Bitcoin will be $ 500,000 to 2029 by the end of 2025 and $ 1 million in 2033.
To finance that accumulation level, the strategy would probably rely on continuous access to capital markets, which may increase the total debt to $ 100 billion and at the same time yield $ 84 billion in equity.
The analysts emphasized that this process ends at low interest rates and a strong question from investors.
The bear case, on the other hand, suggests a more limited future. If Bitcoin reaches a local peak in 2025 and then enters a long -term decline, the BTC companies of the strategy can flatten a level of 514,800 BTC – only 2.6% of the offer.
This would force the company to stop further acquisitions and possibly liquidate part of his treasury to manage debts and dividends. According to this basic model, the debt would rise to $ 51 billion.
Outpresting maintaining the assessment
Despite the risk, Bernstein confirmed an “outperform” rating on strategy and set a price target of $ 600 – which represents an advantage of 75% of the current level
The company’s valuation model applies a 2x EV/sale plural on the software segment and a premium of 55% on its Bitcoin reserves, a figure in line with the average market premium since running to BTC.
The last purchase of strategy – 6,911 BTC for $ 584.1 million between March 17 and March 23 – further anchored its dedication to Bitcoin, which raised the total interest of 500,000 BTC its total property.
The company now owns more BTC than any other listed entity and attracted interest from both retail and institutional investors.
The analysis of Bernstein indicates that a constant institutional interest in the exposure of the Bitcoin Livered strategy. The approach of the company remains a decisive example of how company balance sheets are restructured around Bitcoin.
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