HBAR Price Prediction: Oversold at $0.07 — Short Squeeze Fuel Is Building, But the Trend Hasn’t Forgiven Anyone Yet

HBAR’s Technical Reality Check

Right now, HBAR of $0.0709 isn’t a broken asset – it’s a compressed spring. The RSI is buried in the high 20s, the stochastic oscillator is stuck in the single digits below 5, and the price is touching the lower Bollinger Band with a %B value barely above zero. That’s not a market in free fall; that is a market that has been systematically wrung out by sellers who have run out of new ammunition.

But precision is important here: ‘oversold’ is a condition, not a catalyst. The MACD histogram has flattened to zero, meaning the bearish momentum that drove HBAR to these depths is losing – but has NOT turned positive yet. You need a histogram ticking green before you can call a trend change with real conviction. The moving average stack tells the same uncomfortable story: HBAR is trading below every meaningful average – the 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs form a declining ceiling that starts at $0.08 and peaks at $0.10. Until the price reaches this level again, any bounce is a relief in a downtrend, nothing more.

According to price action data tracked by Blockchain.news, HBAR is grinding in a compressed range near multi-month lows, and technical exhaustion readings are now at levels historically associated with at least a short-term violent relief action. The setup is at a real crossroads: the momentum indicators scream for bounce, the trend structure screams for caution.

Volume and price matching

The derivatives market tells a very specific story, and if you read this correctly, the whole game is happening. Retail participants are positioned 60.6% short versus 39.4% long – that’s a dangerously crowded boat on one side. The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.4849, meaning aggressive sellers outnumber aggressive buyers by about two to one in spot order flow. Near-term pressure is still net bearish in terms of raw execution.

But here’s something that should make these short sellers uncomfortable: open interest is up 2.41% in the last 24 hours, while the price essentially went nowhere. New short positions are added at current lows and not closed – which is exactly the fuel that powers violent short squeezes when sentiment finally changes. Notably, the smarter institutional money – top traders – are much closer to neutral with a 53.4% ​​short position, suggesting that sophisticated participants are not rushing in with focused conviction. They see the retail industry digging its own trap.

Spot volume on Binance barely reached $4 million in 24 hours, which is so meager that a single motivated buyer of actual size could meaningfully move this market. Low volume in a key support zone is a double-edged signal: Sellers lack the firepower to crack HBAR dramatically lower, but buyers haven’t stepped up with the authority either. The 0.0019% funding rate is essentially flat, indicating that the futures market has not priced in a strong directional bet. When it changes, the direction of the movement will determine the next stage.

Expert Outlook context

No major KOL predictions have materialized in the past 24 hours, and that lull during a period of price weakness speaks volumes. When no one in crypto wants to plant their flag near a low, it usually means the market is in a wait-and-see pattern – no one wants the humiliation of hitting a bottom that then prints new lows.

The only concrete figure on the table comes from CoinCodex, which predicted on June 27 that the HBAR would reach $0.1137 by the end of 2026. From current levels, that’s a 60% gain – aggressive, but not misleading given crypto’s volatility profile. The calculations actually line up nicely with the 200-day SMA being at $0.10: a pullback from that level would likely trigger momentum-chasing inflows and short-covering at the same time, which could then naturally push towards the $0.11 range that CoinCodex is targeting.

Traders following the reporting on Blockchain.news will recognize this pattern: assets compressed below the major moving averages, with crowded shorts and collapsing volatility, tend to resolve with sharp, rapid directional moves when the trigger finally arrives. The fundamental backdrop for Hedera has not changed significantly in the last 24 hours, so short-term price action is a purely technical and positioning play.

Forward price path

Here’s how the next seven to thirty days are mapped out, with explicit probabilities.

Primary scenario – Short Squeeze Bounce (55% probability): Within three to seven days, the overcrowded retail short positions, the highly oversold stochastic, and the flat MACD histogram converge into a pre-squeeze trigger. A move towards $0.078–$0.082 – the cluster zone of the 20-day SMA and Bollinger midpoint – represents approximately 10-15% upside from current levels. This is not a call for trend reversal; this is a mean-reversion trade with clearly defined exhausts. Hedging or trimming near the $0.080 SMA cluster is the disciplined play.

Bear expansion scenario (30% probability): The pressure never gets off the ground. Volume remains light, sellers confirm this on each bounce attempt, and HBAR breaks conviction below $0.068. In this scenario, the next meaningful zone only appears between $0.055 and $0.060. This path plays out if Bitcoin deteriorates or broader risk appetite takes a sharp turn.

Bull recovery scenario (15% probability over 30 days): A sustained recovery from the $0.08 moving average creates momentum chasers and leads to real short covering. That combination clears the runway towards $0.095-$0.10, which is directly in line with the 200-day SMA. If HBAR consolidates above that level, the year-end CoinCodex target of $0.1137 shifts from wishful thinking to a credible technical thesis – as Blockchain.news market data would confirm if volume and OI profile support it.

My preference is firmly for the first scenario: a tactical short-squeeze bounce before the larger structural question is answered. Play tight: respect the $0.068 stop zone and adjust accordingly for a mean-reversion trade rather than a trend trade, and don’t confuse a relief rally with a new bull market. HBAR has not earned any label yet. Keep an eye on price behavior and volume over the next 48-72 hours around the $0.071 level – that will determine which scenario loads.

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