Key Takeaways
- 21shares sees a potential route to $100,000 if bitcoin clears $70,000.
- After a Fed-driven pullback, BTC continues defending support around $65,000.
- Meanwhile, inflation concerns and rate expectations could shape near-term market sentiment.
21Shares Says Bitcoin’s Upside Case Starts With a $70K Break
Bitcoin could climb to $100,000 by the end of the third quarter if it clears $70,000 resistance, according to Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at crypto asset manager 21Shares. The forecast comes after the Federal Reserve signaled a more hawkish policy outlook.
Market reaction to the Fed decision pushed BTC down roughly 2%, though Mena viewed the decline as consolidation rather than a change in direction. He said the next major test is whether buyers can reclaim $70,000.
The 21Shares senior crypto research strategist stated: “ Bitcoin itself, while consolidating in the near term, remains structurally well-positioned.” He added:
“With eyes now on $70k, Bitcoin’s next resistance level, if we are able to break through $70k with strength, we are primed to retest $75k and target $80k again as we did in May – setting us up to end Q3 at the coveted $100k level.”
The projection keeps the focus on price action rather than the Fed decision alone. Mena’s view makes $70,000 the threshold that separates near-term consolidation from another attempt at prior highs.
Fed Policy Pressure Keeps Macro Risk in Focus
The Federal Reserve held rates steady under Kevin Warsh, a move Mena described as fully expected. The larger signal came from updated projections, with the median dot, or midpoint of policymakers’ rate forecasts, now pointing to a possible rate hike later this year.
Inflation running at a three-year high added pressure on the Fed’s stance after an energy spike tied to the Iran conflict. Mena also cited the Bank of Japan’s rate increase to 1%, its highest level since 1995, as another source of pressure on risk assets.
The strategist said:
“Warsh is also a distinctive figure for digital-asset markets: the first Fed Chair with personal ties to the crypto industry (including an early investment in multiple crypto projects) and a more constructive posture toward bitcoin than his predecessors, publicly stating he is a fan of bitcoin.”
That leaves the next move tied to whether buyers can sustain momentum after the Fed-driven pullback. For Mena, the hawkish backdrop has not changed BTC’s broader setup.