Jessie A Ellis
June 9, 2026 8:25 AM
FILE is hovering precariously at $0.77, with the RSI showing continued weakness at 36.69, while bearish momentum and volume patterns point to a very likely test of $0.50-$0.55 support within two weeks.
The technical failure is accelerating
FILE is perilously close to its lower Bollinger Band at $0.72 and trading at $0.77 with clear signs of distribution. The RSI reading of 36.69 indicates that selling pressure remains intact without reaching oversold extremes that usually lead to rebounds. Meanwhile, the MACD has become close to zero, indicating complete momentum exhaustion as the bears maintain control of the price action.
The moving average structure tells a compelling story of overhead resistance. The 7-day average of $0.80 acts as immediate resistance, while the 20-day average of $0.86 and 200-day average of $1.11 create multiple layers of selling pressure. This technical ceiling makes any sustained rally attempt extremely difficult, forcing FILE into a sharp downtrend that promotes continued weakness.
Derivatives indicate hidden weakness
Despite surface-level positioning data showing 62.1% long positions among top traders with a long/short ratio of 1.64, the underlying order flow shows worrying dynamics. The buyer’s buy/sell ratio is 0.85, indicating that aggressive selling consistently overwhelms passive buying interest. This difference between static positioning and active trading behavior usually precedes sharp price movements, as positions with excessive debt come under pressure.
Open interest of $36.8 million versus only $6.25 million in spot volume creates an unstable base. Blockchain.news’ analysis shows that when retail traders hold 56.9% long positions but generate minimal buying volume, it creates conditions ripe for cascading liquidations. The negative coverage ratio of -0.0034% does not provide sufficient incentives to discourage further short positions.
Price path forward
FILE faces two different scenarios over the next seven to thirty days. The primary path has a probability of around 65% and includes a decisive break below the Bollinger Band support at $0.72. This break would likely trigger algorithmic stop-losses and force additional selling pressure, pushing the price towards the $0.50-$0.55 zone, which represents a 27-35% decline from current levels.
The alternative scenario calls for an immediate reversal above $0.81 resistance, accompanied by sustained daily volume above 10 million. However, Blockchain.news’ technical analysis suggests this outcome faces significant headwinds given the current momentum structure and sentiment backdrop.
Timeline expectations point to testing of $0.50-$0.55 within 10-14 days if $0.72 support fails. Any bounce from these levels would likely prove temporary, creating a dead cat bounce scenario towards $0.65-$0.70 before the next leg down. Only a decisive break above $0.90 on strong volume would negate this bearish trajectory and suggest a meaningful trend reversal.
Blockchain.new Crypto Market
Image source: Shutterstock