As the June 2nd primary approaches in Los Angeles, prediction markets are showing a notable shift in the Los Angeles mayoral race: incumbent Karen Bass’s odds have been all over the place – recently dropping sharply – while challenger Spencer Pratt has seen his implied probability climb.
According to the latest Polymarket snapshot, Bass sits at 59% to win the election outright, down from higher levels above 70% seen earlier in the week. Pratt has risen to 21%, with Nithya Raman at 20% and minor candidates under 1%.
Similar movements appear on Kalshi, where Bass is around 61% (down roughly 7 points recently) and Pratt near 23%.
What’s Driving the Shift?
The volatility reflects a tightening race highlighted by fresh polling and widespread dissatisfaction with conditions in Los Angeles. The latest UC Berkeley/LA Times Poll from May 19-24 shows Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22% among likely voters. Raman and Pratt each gained ground since March, while Bass remained relatively flat. Other surveys from Emerson and Cygnal have shown Pratt surging in recent weeks.
Pratt, best known from the reality show The Hills, entered the race after losing family property in the Palisades Fire. His campaign has focused heavily on strict enforcement against homelessness encampments, mandatory treatment for addiction, government audits, and accountability for billions spent on homelessness and recovery efforts. He has been a vocal critic of what many see as the mishandling of the Palisades Fire response under Bass.
Bass continues to tout measurable progress, including an 18% reduction in street homelessness, drops in violent crime, and efforts to boost housing and film production. However, many voters remain frustrated with visible issues such as persistent encampments, high housing costs, and post-fire recovery challenges. Her approval ratings have been underwater in some surveys.
Adding to the optics today, Governor Gavin Newsom formally endorsed Bass, praising her record. The last-minute endorsement, coming just five days before the primary, has raised eyebrows among some observers who see it as a sign of desperation from the establishment to prop up the incumbent.
What’s Next…
Los Angeles uses a two-round system: the top two vote-getters from the June 2 primary advance to a November 3 runoff if no one exceeds 50%. Bass is still heavily favored to advance and win a runoff thanks to incumbent advantages, name recognition, and the city’s Democratic lean. Yet a strong showing by Pratt or Raman could set up a more competitive general election.
Pratt has raised over $3.2 million recently, including $2.7 million in a single reporting period, largely from small donors (LA Times on fundraising). His media savvy and outsider message have energized voters who feel ignored by the political establishment. Low turnout in the primary could favor these motivated challengers.
Prediction markets still price Bass as the clear favorite overall, but the recent dip signals that bettors are increasingly pricing in uncertainty and Pratt’s momentum. With early voting active and ballots due by June 2, the next few days will determine whether this becomes a straightforward reelection or a dramatic runoff battle.