Key Takeaways
- Trump backs CFTC Chairman Michael Selig’s federal authority over prediction markets, rejecting state-level bans in 2026.
- NY AG Letitia James, Gov. Tim Walz, and Gov. JB Pritzker each moved to restrict prediction market platforms this year.
- Trump links U.S. prediction market dominance to crypto leadership, warning foreign rivals are targeting both sectors.
Trump Backs CFTC Chairman Selig on Prediction Markets, Warns States to Stand Down
On Truth Social, Trump directed his criticism at four officials by name, calling former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker “SCUM” for interfering with prediction markets at the state level.
“It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive,” Trump wrote. “Under my leadership, we are setting ‘rules of the road’ that are the Gold Standard for the States.”
Prediction markets are platforms where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, from election results to Federal Reserve decisions to sports events. They function similarly to futures markets and have drawn attention as information tools that can reflect crowd sentiment more quickly than traditional polling.
The CFTC, which regulates derivatives and futures under Chairman Michael Selig, has asserted that CFTC-registered prediction market exchanges operate under exclusive federal jurisdiction. States cannot classify those platforms as illegal gambling or impose separate licensing requirements, the agency has argued in court filings and ongoing rulemaking.
James has filed lawsuits claiming certain prediction markets violate New York state gambling laws. Walz signed legislation this year imposing criminal penalties on operators of some prediction market platforms in Minnesota. Pritzker issued cease-and-desist orders against platforms operating in Illinois.
Christie, who has worked in an advisory capacity with gaming associations, has defended state authority to regulate these products as gambling-like offerings.
Trump framed all four as obstacles to federal innovation policy. His statement tied prediction market regulation directly to the CFTC’s Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking issued earlier in 2026, which seeks to establish baseline rules for how prediction contracts are listed, traded, and monitored for fraud or manipulation.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi attracted wide attention during the 2024 presidential election, when their contract prices tracking a Trump victory moved ahead of major polling averages. The prediction market user base has grown sharply since then, with some estimates pointing to user counts quadrupling in roughly two years.
Trump connected prediction markets to the broader crypto industry, arguing that both require federal protection from foreign competition and domestic interference. He wrote:
“Where we are currently the Crypto ( Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World, other Countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity, but we won’t let that happen.”
Many prediction platforms carry direct crypto ties. Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain and settles contracts in USDC. The overlap between prediction market regulation and crypto policy has put the CFTC at the center of two of the administration’s highest-profile financial innovation priorities.
Trump closed the statement with a personal endorsement of Selig. “Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job. Thank you Mike!” Selig was sworn in late 2025 and has moved aggressively to defend federal preemption in state court cases while the commission advances its formal rulemaking process.
The statement carries weight beyond political signaling. Prediction market operators and crypto firms watching the federal-versus-state regulatory fight now have a direct White House declaration that the CFTC’s authority should hold and that state-level crackdowns run against administration policy.
Whether that backing translates into concrete legal outcomes depends on pending court cases and the pace of the CFTC’s rulemaking, but Trump made clear Tuesday that the federal government intends to treat prediction markets and crypto as industries worth defending.