Timothy Morano
May 24, 2026 8:37 AM
HBAR’s 4.36% pump masks deeper weakness, with the RSI stuck at 46 and the MACD flattening. Smart money tends to be bullish, but retail shorts are piling up – expect a choppy consolidation between $0.085-$0.095 before…
HBAR’s Technical Reality Check
HBAR is currently trading in no man’s land. The RSI at 46.18 indicates that momentum has come to a complete standstill – neither buyers nor sellers are convinced. More worryingly, the MACD histogram shows zero, with both lines converging at -0.0004. This indicates that bearish momentum is building beneath the surface, despite today’s green candle of 4.36%.
The Bollinger Bands paint an even clearer picture. HBAR is approaching the bottom at position 0.28, meaning we are closer to oversold territory than any meaningful breakout zone. The price is compressing between $0.09 support and resistance, creating a consolidation pattern that screams, “Choose a direction already.”
Blockchain.news’ technical analysis shows that these types of sideways moves typically precede a violent breakout or a slow bleed. Given the momentum indicators, I’m leaning towards the latter.
Volume and price matching
Here’s where it gets interesting. Binance spot volume reached $8.95 million in 24 hours – respectable but not explosive. The real story is in the derivatives market, where smart money positioning tells a different story than retail sentiment.
Top traders are net long with a ratio of 1.12 (52.8% long vs. 47.1% short), while the broader market shows retail traders coming under pressure with only 45.3% long positions vs. 54.7% short. This difference usually means one thing: the professionals see something coming that the retail industry doesn’t.
The balanced taker buy/sell ratio of 1.0007 suggests institutional accumulation rather than FOMO buying. When Blockchain.new reported similar patterns in previous cycles, it often preceded sustained increases within two to three weeks.
Expert Outlook context
The KOL landscape is eerily quiet especially on HBAR, which is even bullish in this environment. No predictions means no overhyped expectations that disappoint. However, the Bitcoin analyst poll shows that 5 out of 7 experts are targeting $73K-$84K, creating important context for altcoin flows.
If Bitcoin breaks above $70,000 in the coming week, HBAR will historically follow with a 15-25% deceleration pump. The correlation is not perfect, but strong enough to matter. The 0.0017% funding rate does not show excessive debt build-up, meaning any move upwards will not face immediate liquidation pressure.
Forward price path
Over the next seven to fourteen days, the HBAR is likely to fall between $0.085 and $0.095. The 200-period SMA at $0.11 acts like a magnet: either we get pulled up to test it, or we get a hard rejection and retest the strong support at $0.08.
Probability matrix for the next 30 days: – 40% chance that HBAR breaks above $0.095 and recovers to the $0.11-$0.12 zone if Bitcoin cooperates – 35% chance that we continue sideways consolidation in the current $0.085-$0.095 range – 25% chance that a breakdown below $0.085 targets the $0.075-$0.08 support cluster
Smart money positioning points to accumulation, but technical momentum remains weak. I look for a break above $0.095, with volume extension triggering the next leg higher. Until then, Blockchain.news expects HBAR to remain in range, with a slight upside bias given derivatives positioning.
Any breakdown below $0.085 changes the entire thesis and opens the door for a retest of deeper support levels around $0.075.
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