Key Takeaways
- Brent crude fell below $99 on May 24 as Trump declared a U.S.-Iran deal “largely negotiated,” targeting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- JPMorgan forecasts Brent averaging $60 long-term if tensions ease, with WTI potentially sliding into the $80s on confirmed supply restoration.
- Bitcoin held near $77,000 through the Memorial Day weekend as crypto markets stayed open while NYSE, CME, and bond markets will be closed on May 25.
Trump Signals U.S.-Iran Deal Pushes Brent Crude Below $99 as WTI Eyes $80s
Brent crude dropped roughly 4.87% in weekend CFD trading to around $98.87, extending a pullback from Friday’s settlement near $103. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) July 2026 contract closed Friday at $97.00, up 0.67% on the session, though weekend indications pointed lower. Earlier in May, Brent had traded above $110 on supply fears tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict before retreating sharply each time talks advanced.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the pivot point. The waterway carries roughly 20% of global oil trade, and Iranian restrictions alongside U.S. naval actions have cut off more than 10 million barrels per day at peak disruption levels since fighting escalated in late February. Each round of ceasefire signals has knocked prices down by double digits in single sessions.
Trump’s weekend statements added weight to bearish sentiment. The president remarked that a deal is close, with terms expected to include a 60-day ceasefire extension, potential sanctions relief, and deferred nuclear talks. Iran has submitted revised proposals, and regional players, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are reportedly involved in the process. Sticking points remain around Iranian control of the strait, uranium stockpiles, and concerns raised by Israel.
Traders expect a confirmed deal to push WTI toward the $80s. Infrastructure repairs and shipping logistics could delay full supply normalization by weeks or months, but the market is already pricing in restored flow. If talks collapse, the risk premium returns fast.
The futures curve reflects the split outlook. Brent contracts for August traded near $99.50, September near $96.00, with further months declining as markets price in eventual normalization. Analysts at JPMorgan have flagged a $60 average for Brent if geopolitical tensions ease and projected surpluses materialize later in 2026. Other forecasters see Q2 averages closer to $90 to $100, given the disruption period.
Pakistan-mediated ceasefire rounds earlier this spring triggered some of the steepest single-day price drops of the year. The same pattern is repeating. Deal optimism compresses the risk premium; any breakdown restores it. Traders heading into Tuesday’s session are watching for formal confirmation.
Bitcoin held between $76,700 and $77,200 through the weekend with no meaningful breakout in either direction. Crypto markets operate 24 hours a day and remain the only major financial market active during the U.S. holiday. Ethereum and altcoins moved in line with bitcoin, with overall volume thin and momentum flat. At least for now, at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday evening.
U.S. stock markets, bond markets, and CME energy futures operate under holiday restrictions tomorrow, May 25. Normal trading resumes Tuesday, May 26. That session will absorb any deal developments that emerge over the long weekend. Anything could happen in between that time.
Oil’s near-term direction stays event-driven. A confirmed Hormuz reopening flips the supply picture fast. Traders who rode prices above $110 in early May have already seen what deal optimism does on the way down.
Bitcoin’s consolidation near $77,000 has held through a period of macro and geopolitical noise. Whether that changes on Tuesday depends largely on what happens in a Strait 7,000 miles away. Per usual, crypto may feel it first.