Inflation is back in the spotlight this week, with a new influx of data likely to shape expectations for US interest rates and risky assets like bitcoin.
Thursday’s core US PCE figures for the February CPI release and Friday’s March CPI release will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait before cutting rates. Earlier this year, interest rate cuts seemed almost certain. That has shifted. On Polymarket, the probability that rates would not be cut in 2026 rose from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin has “already priced in a (US) recession” and has acted as a “canary in the coal mine,” keeping it below the signals of financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.
Recent data complicates that view. The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised positively in March, indicating that the US economy may be more resilient to higher oil prices than in previous cycles.
After the announcement, the market-based recession probability for this year fell from about 37% to 28%.
Because bitcoin has priced in a storm, Dragosch noted that the risk-reward ratio for bitcoin is “significantly skewed to the upside.” Still, an unexpected escalation of the war in the Middle East could trigger the priced-in storm.
What to watch
(All times ET)
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Crypto
- April 6, 12:00 PM: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) is hosting a March 2026 recap and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on X Spaces.
- April 8: Stable release of Stellar’s Yardstick protocol becomes available.
- April 9: Aerodrome’s Flight School closes and merges with the Public Goods Fund to form the Momentum Fund.
- April 9: Binance migrates all DAI functionality to USDS.
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Macro
- April 6, 9:00 AM: US ISM Services PMI for March estimated at 55 (previous 56.1)
- April 7, 7:15 am: US ADP Employment Change Weekly (estimated 10,000)
- April 7, 7:30 a.m.: US monthly durable goods orders for February estimated at 04% (previous 0%)
- April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee joins a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
- April 8, 4 a.m.: Euro area annualized PPI for February, estimated at -1.9% (previous -2.1%); MoM estimated 0.5% (Previous 0.7%)
- April 8, 1 p.m.: FOMC minutes from March 17-18 meeting.
- April 9, 7:30 am: US Core PCE price index MoM for February estimated at 0.4% (previous 0.4%);
- April 9, 7:30 am: US monthly personal income for February, estimated at 0.3% (previously 0.4%); Personal expenses on a monthly basis estimated at 0.5% (previously 0.4%)
- April 9, 7:30 am: US Q4 GDP growth (final) estimated at 0.7% (previous 4.4%)
- April 9, 7:30 am: US initial unemployment claims for the week ending April 4, estimated at 200,000 (previous 202,000)
- April 9, 8:30 PM: Chinese annualized CPI for March, estimated at 1.2% (previously 1.3%); monthly (previously 1%)
- April 9, 8:30 PM: Chinese annualized PPi for March estimated at 0.4% (previous -0.9%)
- April 10, 7:30 am: Canada unemployment rate for March (previously 6.7%)
- April 10, 7:30 am: US CPI MoM for March estimated at 0.9% (previously 0.3%); Core CPI MoM estimated 0.3% (previous 0.2%)
- April 10, 7:30 am: US annualized CPI for March, estimated at 3.4% (previously 2.4%); Core annualized CPI estimated at 2.7% (previous 2.5%)
- April 10, 10 a.m.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary April) estimated at 52.5 (previous 53.3)
- Income (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token events
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Board votes and calls
- April 7: Kamino and xStocks host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
- Aave DAO votes to adjust oracle configurations, lower liquidation thresholds, and adjust interest rate models in its V2 markets to support their continued amortization. Voting ends on April 6.
- Decentraland DAO votes to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a definition of success and a 2030 contingency plan. The proposal currently has voter support. Voting ends on April 6.
- Balancer DAO will vote on two linked proposals to restructure operations with a limited team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by halting BAL emissions, shutting down veBAL, sending all fees to the treasury, and offering a token buyback. Voting ends on April 7.
- CoW DAO votes 85 to set the solver reward budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between achievements and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends on April 7.
- ShapeShift DAO votes to reduce DFC compensation, saving ~$24k/year in FOX. It clarifies the roles and prescribes annual renewals. Voting ends on April 8.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on two proposals to change its audit program with a flexible tuning framework and an AI security scan pilot, and to transfer 6,000 ETH and inactive stablecoins to the Treasury Management Portfolio for yield generation. Voting ends on April 9.
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Unlocks
- April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) unlocks 0.14% of the $11.94 million circulating supply.
- April 8: Stable (STABLE) to unlock 4.14% of circulating value worth $23.97 million.
- April 9: Aptos unlocks 0.68% of its $9.56 million circulating supply.
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Token is launched
- April 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event takes place.
Conferences
- April 8: Token Americas 2026 (Mami)
- April 9: Thank God for Bitcoin 2026 (Texas)
- April 9–12: BitBlockBoom 2026 (Texas)
- April 11–12: MIT Bitcoin Expo 2026 (Massachusetts)
- April 13: Solana Summit 2026 (New York)