Another near-miss has unfolded over NATO skies, with Turkey on Monday announcing that air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran. It’s another dangerous indication that the Iran war could easily expand into a broader conflict at any moment.
The intercept was carried out by air and missile defense assets positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean, according to the Turkish defense ministry, which offered no further initial details concerning trajectory, type, or what the intended target ultimately was.
This marks the fourth fourth such interception since March of the war and Operation Epic Fury, which has surpassed the one-month mark.
The timing is notable given Ankara is simultaneously trying to play middleman between Washington and Tehran, alongside Pakistan where regional diplomats have been trying to jump-start direct Tehran-Washington talks, which has proven elusive.
Turkish and NATO officials have struck a familiar tone, describing that “all necessary measures” are being taken to counter threats to Turkish territory and airspace, and further saying that ongoing developments will be “closely monitored”.
There’s been speculation that these ballistic missiles from Iran could be intended for US-British military assets in Cyprus. Earlier in the conflict drones were sent – likely from Iranian allies in Lebanon – onto a British airbase in EU-member Cypriot territory.
NATO command has previously stated that “Our deterrence and defense posture remains strong across all domains, including when it comes to air and missile defense.”
This developing pattern of large Iranian missiles flying over Turkey has raised the potential for invoking NATO Article 5, despite US officials having downplayed this option.
During the first incident, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth had described, “On the matter with Turkey, I’ll have to get back to you on exactly what the intercept looked like.”
He laid out at the time that “We’re aware of that particular engagement, although no sense that it would trigger anything like Article 5.”