Bitcoin fell to $63,030 after the US and Israel attacks on Iran triggered a risk cascade in the markets. From there, BTC rose to $74,000 intraday on March 4, a recovery of about 17%.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $73,613, up 7.7% in the last 24 hours. The move recaptured much of the sell-off, but whether it holds depends on a handful of levels and liquidity signals identified as crucial by on-chain data.
To sustain the rally, BTC must convert the $70,000 weekly closing ceiling into support. Otherwise, $70,000 remains an overhead distribution band, while the asking zone of $60,000-$69,000 is still the real bid below that.
Glassnode pegs $70,000 as the short-term resistance line that BTC has repeatedly failed to close above on a weekly basis since early February.
The 1 week to 1 month holder cost basis is close to $70,000, creating what Glassnode calls an overhead distribution zone, a ±2% range from $68,500 to $71,500, where recent buyers can become sellers if they reach break-even or a slight profit.
Above that, $75,000 emerges as the main gamma magnet when positioning options. The negative gamma of roughly $2.3 billion is concentrated at the $75,000 strike across expirations, with $1.8 billion at the March 27 expiration alone.
The net call premium of $14.5 million has traded at $75,000 over the next three monthly expirations, with two-thirds of that volume built over the past week.
This isn’t just a round number: options positioning makes $75,000 a liquidity and gravity level. If the price is pulled there, there needs to be real spot demand, otherwise it becomes a chop zone.
Below current levels, the supporting structures are thinner. The intraday low around $67,500 serves as the bounce fail line. If BTC breaks below, the move threatens to unwind.
Glassnode identified last week that the $60,000-$69,000 range is the key demand zone below, suggesting this is where real bids will be as the rally subsides.
Using the range of $63,030 to $74,000, keeping 70% of the bounce means holding above $70,709. If you keep 60%, that means you’ll be holding $69,612. These thresholds match almost perfectly with Glassnode’s overhead distribution band between $68,500 and $71,500.
If BTC holds above $70,700, it will likely sustain most of the rebound. If the market loses $69,600, the market gives back a significant chunk, and $70,000 goes back to acting as supply rather than support.
Demand is thinning
On-chain metrics show that buy-side demand remains weak despite the price recovery.
The 30-day moving average of realized profits fell from more than $1 billion per day to roughly $370 million per day, a contraction of 63%.
Glassnode sees this as depleted liquidity on the buy side. A hold-the-gains setup requires realized profits to exit and re-extend the contracts, indicating that buyers are willing to trade at a premium. Without that, the bounce goes to weak hands.
The percentage of supply in profit is around 57%, below the minus-one standard deviation threshold of almost 60%. Glassnode compares this stressed regime to the early stages of the bear phase of May 2022 and November 2018.
For the rally to sustain, the percentage of supply in earnings must regain 60% and trend upward, signaling an exit from the stressed regime.
Coinbase Leads Spot Liquidity, ETF Flows Stabilize
Spot flow data shows a nuanced picture.
Selling pressure has decreased in recent days. Coinbase’s cumulative volume delta is starting to recover, indicating early activity on the bid side.
However, Binance and overall currency flows remain weak, although Glassnode notes that they are “no longer accelerating lower.”
This uptick will only last if bid absorption expands beyond Coinbase. Otherwise, it’s a local relief rally and not a market-wide reversal. The pattern suggests that institutional or US-based buyers are re-engaging, but international or retail flows have not yet followed suit.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had sustained outflows that led to the sell-off, but the outflows have stabilized as early inflows reemerge. There were net inflows of $458.2 million on March 2, followed by $225.2 million on March 3, according to data from Farside Investors.
Glassnode emphasizes that it is still too early to confirm a sustainable turnaround, but a sustained recovery in inflows would provide meaningful support on the ground.
Supportive conditions include multiple days of net inflows and an increase in the seven-day average from negative. The reversal risk remains if cash flows turn negative while the price remains stuck below or around the $70,000 upper limit.
The stabilization is encouraging, but persistence is more important than the initial turnaround.
Derivatives: leverage flushed, $75,000 as magnet
The perpetual directional premium continues to contract towards the cycle low, indicating cautious leverage and moderate bullish conviction.
Glassnode takes this as leverage being flushed out, but also as a signal that leveraged bulls remain hesitant.
With healthy persistence, premiums would stabilize while spot market conditions would improve.
A fragile hold would indicate that prices will rise especially for derivatives, while spot remains weak. So far the setup is leaning towards the former, with leverage unwinding rather than aggressively reaccumulating.
Options positioning has changed dramatically since the February 28 low. The put/call ratio fell from 1.89 to 0.4, due to the expiry of hedges and increased call activity. The skew has compressed from the mid-20s to the low 20s, indicating that downside fears have disappeared.
The $75,000 strike concentration is the most important detail. Roughly $2.3 billion of negative gamma is in that strike over expirations, with $1.8 billion concentrated on the March 27 expiration.
The net call premium of $14.5 million has traded at $75,000 over the next three monthly expirations, with two-thirds of the premium accrued over the past week.
As the price approaches $75,000, the gamma concentration creates a liquidity and gravity effect. Without real demand in the spot market, that level could become a breakpoint instead of a breakout point.
What holds, what breaks
Three scenarios outline the possibilities.
The first scenario occurs if BTC holds above $70,700 and starts showing stronger spot and ETF support. In this case, the $70,000 level could turn into support, and $75,000 becomes the next magnet test. Weekly closes above $70,000 would confirm this reversal.
If the second scenario will occur, BTC will run between $68,500 and $71,500 and the weekly close cannot go above $70,000. This move threatens to be a relief rally in overhead distribution. The realized gains need to expand again, and spot bid absorption needs to broaden beyond Coinbase for this range to move higher.
Finally, a third scenario occurs if BTC loses the local bounce structure around $67,500 and remains $70,000 overhead. The market will likely re-examine the $60,000-$69,000 asking range as the fair bid. That would mark a failed bounce rather than a hold.
The data points to a fragile recovery with strengths such as improving Coinbase flows, stabilizing ETF inflows, and normalizing options skew.
However, the wider tape remains unconvinced.
The $70,000 level isn’t just a number, it’s also where recent cost buyers are, where weekly closes have repeatedly failed, and where the market will test whether this rebound continues or spills over into overhead supply.
Weekly closures and spot stream width will answer that question in the coming days.