A widely followed crypto analyst believes that the macroeconomic environment is starting to shift in favor of Bitcoin (BTC).
Crypto trader Michaël Van De Poppe tells his 818,600 followers on X indicate that the business cycle is accelerating.
“It’s important to realize that things need to be put into perspective. The ISM Manufacturing PMI [Purchasing Managers’ Index] goes to the first 50+ books read in over three years. In that respect, it has been one of the longest bear markets. Not great for the business cycle, and not great for Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin has recovered is simply and solely due to the launch and liquidity of the ETF [exchange-traded fund]. But now, just now, is the moment when the markets are starting to wake up.”
The question is whether the business cycle is really related to the price of Bitcoin.
“Now there is a lot of discussion about the fact that the PMI remained positive in previous times and Bitcoin entered a bear market. Yes, for sure, because the macroeconomic conditions completely changed.
Last cycle: At the end of 2021, the Fed decided to initiate QT [quantitative tightening] and sharply increase interest rates.
This time: QE [quantitative easing] has started now that the economy is weakening slightly and interest rates are falling.
There is a reason why gold and silver spiked last week, and it is due to the fact that this macroeconomic period is coming to an end. In the next one to three years, we will see a strong and final bull on Bitcoin and crypto.”
When asked to clarify what he means by “final,” Poppe said he means the last bull run before a depression-level economic disaster descends.
Meanwhile, widely followed crypto analyst and trader Benjamin Cowen tells are 1.1 million followers on X that the ISM is not a reliable indicator of Bitcoin performance.
“Another example where the ISM is not the best indicator for predicting BTC price action:
January 2019:
June 2019:
So in this case, over a period of six months, the ISM fell and the price of BTC went up four times.”
Bitcoin is trading at $75,469 at the time of writing, down 3.7% on the day.
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Generated image: Midjourney